The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will compete for NFL glory in Sunday’s Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, CA,.
As has been the case for XL of the past LX years, however, advertising will be the real game within the game for the media business and plenty of casual viewers. A growing roster of ads is already online, especially those featuring celebrities, though there will still be surprises (including from Hollywood studios).
NBCUniversal said it sold out of ad inventory way back in September, with rates in the $8 million range for a 30-second spot (though a handful commanded $10 million). The company has created packages for advertisers across its “Legendary February,” which also includes the Winter Olympics and the NBA All-Star Game.
Here are five things to keep an eye on as this year’s brand blitz plays out:
1. Such A Tease
A lot of ad campaigns now include 5-to-10-second teases for the eventually longer-form spot. While shorter glimpses make sense for digital, many now air on linear, as was the case for the Spike Jonze-directed Instacart plug featuring Ben Stiller and singer Benson Boone, or one for State Farm featuring Keegan-Michael Key and Danny McBride.
Susan Schiekofer, Chief Media Officer for WPP Media U.S., tells Deadline that Super Bowl teasers “tap into how people consume media now – short, social, and participatory. They let brands spark anticipation without spoiling the main event. The real magic is in the placement: the same ad can feel fresh or invisible depending on where and how it’s released. That’s why platform-specific strategy is everything.”
In success, says Kerry Benson, SVP of Creative Strategy at Kantar, teasers “get people talking about the brand, both online and offline and help extend the length of the overall Super Bowl campaign.”
2. Bot Battle
Four major AI providers – Anthropic, OpenAI, Amazon and Google – will be featured during the game. While that’s not all that shocking given the hundreds of billions of dollars pouring into AI infrastructure, the clash may end up being a turning point in the high-stakes tech race.
Anthropic, maker of AI model Claude, takes a not-so-subtle dig at rival OpenAI for its plan to start incorporating advertising into ChatGPT. Its series of ads, one of which will air on the game Sunday, sends up the uncanny tone of chatbots (“Great question!”) as well as the creepy notion of ads being served based on personal data.
While the ad has “done a good job of stoking conversations and controversy online,” iSpot brand analyst Sammi Schaminghausen wrote in a report, “it does not test well general population audiences, with confusion around the messaging and execution.” A common emotional viewer response all AI advertisers is “WTF,” he added. “These companies need to work hard at delivering clear message and strong storytelling that ties to the brand.”
Scott Galloway, a longtime brand strategist and professor at New York University, delivered a different verdict on Friday’s episode of the podcast Pivot, which he hosts with Kara Swisher. “This is genius and this will be seen as the pivotal moment when in 12 months Anthropic is worth more than OpenAI,” he said.
3. Surge Pricing
Due to a few last-minute shuffles, a handful of advertisers paid north of $10 million for 30 seconds of time, according to reports in recent weeks. That’s double the going rate less than a decade ago, and the upswing with the Super Bowl contradicts the downward drift of overall advertising on TV amid cord-cutting and competition from YouTube, streaming and social media.
Is that level of spending on a single TV ad, especially in an uncertain economic environment, really worth it? Because the Super Bowl has hit record audience levels in recent years (in part due to revised Nielsen methodology), drawing nearly 128 million streaming and linear viewers last year, most marketers still see a major return on their investment.
“There are not many opportunities like this,” iSpot founder and CEO Sean Muller said in an interview. As long as the creative execution and brand positioning are solid, he said, “it’s even more of a unique opportunity with all of the fragmentation in media. Whether the rating of the Super Bowl is up 10% or down 10%, who cares? It’s still so massive.”
4. AI Alters Production
The rise of AI is reshaping film and television production, and is completely upending Madison Avenue. A recent report from Boston Consulting highlights the forming of what the firm calls the “AI attention stack,” which is causing marketers to completely rethink their budgets and approaches.
The Super Bowl may be an outlier in many respects, but it is not immune to the forces weighing on the broader ad industry. Costs for a typical spot, which tend to fall in the $12 million to $15 million range, including the fee for network air time, are starting to come down, industry sources say.
What all of this means for A-list stars will be something to track in the years to come. Many are still getting top dollar to appear in Super Bowl spots, but with so much technological change and pressure on budgets, it doesn’t seem like a guarantee.
As one of 20 industry figures contacted by McKinsey & Company for a report on AI’s impact on production, CAA strategic development exec Alexandra Shannon said an AI-rich landscape could end up enhancing the worth of flesh-and-blood talent given the flood of videos it is unleashing. “Premium, authentic, human-led content will be even more valuable if the overall supply of content increases,” she told the consulting firm.
5. Humor Stays Safe
A decisive majority of ads emphasize humor, but remain strictly PG-rated given the stakes and the size of the audience.
Many stars known for their risk-taking wind up agreeing to play nice in exchange for a big game check. Shane Gillis, for example, got fired from Saturday Night Live after an old video of him using a racial slur surfaced, only to go on to a successful career as a comedian and actor. On the Super Bowl, don’t expect any of that rough texture when he appears with Peyton Manning in a labored promo for Bud Light.
Kantar’s Benson observes that trends change quickly. (Hopefully, that means hope for a return to the livelier likes of Old Spice’s “The Man Your Man Could Smell Like” or Reebok’s “Terry Tate: Office Linebacker.”)
“What was edgy a couple of years ago (e.g., not one, but multiple celebrities in an ad) is no longer edgy today (e.g., celebrity cameos may not help the ad breakthrough),” she told Deadline in an email interview. “Advertisers have learned that celebrities, humor, nostalgia, and good storytelling all drive engagement. But will the audience remember the brand? It takes more to stand out today than ever before.”
