https://preview.redd.it/qcksu3ur25af1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=af4217769c08e8330668d85d3bda65242e65e3de

Passing all projections, F1 over-performed with over $140 million worldwide, easily becoming Apple's biggest ever debut at the box office. But the weekend's other newcomer, M3GAN 2.0, had an incredibly disappointing debut, achieving just one third of the original's debut.

The Top 10 earned a combined $122.7 million this weekend. That's down 16.5% from last year, when Inside Out 2 held the top spot from A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1.

Debuting on #1, Warner Bros/Apple's F1 earned a pretty good $57 million from 3,661 theaters. That's easily Apple's biggest debut at the box office, more than doubling the debuts of Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2 million) and Napoleon ($20.6 million). It's also Brad Pitt's second biggest debut as leading man, just behind World War Z ($66.4 million).

How did it get here when other Apple films couldn't open that high? Simply put, it's a film that emphasized what everyone wants in a blockbuster, especially car racing: high-octane racing sequences. It didn't matter that the story is very by-the-numbers and one that you've seen before. You're here for those sequences, and the marketing has done a very great job in getting audiences interested. And given what director Joseph Kosinski achieved with Top Gun: Maverick, looks like he nailed that kind of action.

WB and Apple mounted a very extensive marketing campaign, including releasing the very first trailer one year ago. Among the tactics included multiple sponsorships from famous brands (which helped the film recover $40 million already), and appearances in real-life venues to promote it. They also highlighted the use of IMAX, and it looks like it worked; IMAX contributed to $12.8 million of the weekend (23%), while all IMAX and PLF screens amounted to 58% of the weekend's gross. Along with some pretty great reviews (83% on RT), audiences were ready to experience Formula One like never before.

According to Warner Bros., 62% of the audience was male, and 53% was 35 and over. Something interesting: while the film was aimed towards older audiences, its biggest demo turned out to be Gen Z; 29% of the audience was 13-24. Considering there's always multiple articles on how young audiences aren't interested in movies, this is a very promising stat.

Audiences gave F1 a great "A" on CinemaScore, which indicates word of mouth will be quite strong. No doubt, there's impact from July blockbusters coming up, but F1 could hold its own against them. For example, in a shock, the film actually has two weeks of IMAX access, taking them all from Jurassic World Rebirth. For now, F1 should finish its race with $165 million domestically. And it could go higher.

How to Train Your Dragon dropped 46%, adding $19.5 million this weekend. Considering this and last week's drop, it doesn't look like the film is holding as well as it should. The film has crossed $200 million domestically, and it will finish with around $250 million.

In third place, Pixar's Elio added $10.4 million this weekend. That's a very weak 50% drop, which is one of Pixar's worst. In contrast, Elemental dropped just 37.7% on its second weekend. Animated films usually drop 40% or less, which means Elio is not connecting with audiences despite the positive word of mouth. Through 10 days, the film has earned a poor $41.9 million domestically. With more competition on its way, it's unlikely it can hold to screens for a long time. There's a strong chance it finishes below Onward ($61 million) and becomes the lowest grossing Pixar title if it keeps dropping like this.

Debuting on the fourth spot (crazy, right?), M3GAN 2.0 debuted with a very disappointing $10.2 million in 3,122 theaters. That's a horrible 66% drop from the original M3GAN ($30.4 million), which is one of the steepest for a sequel. Hell, the opening weekend is even below the original's opening day. And it somehow managed to open below Blumhouse's recent flop Wolf Man ($10.8 million).

This is an astonishingly bad debut. After all, Blumhouse increased the budget from $12 million to $25 million for the sequel, and this is all it could do? Not to mention a very extensive marketing campaign; it even had a Super Bowl slot. But M3GAN was one of Blumhouse's biggest hits, how could the sequel fall this much?

Timing is everything, and while the sequel arrived just 2 years after the original, moving it from an empty January to the competitive June was probably not a good idea. It had to compete with some big blockbusters, and horror audiences were probably saving money for 28 Years Later. Well, "horror", cause it's unlikely M3GAN falls in the same category as Years or Final Destination: Bloodlines or the upcoming I Know What You Did Last Summer. Why the asterisk?

The original M3GAN was sold as a horror, but with some campy added, and that contributed to its success at the box office and social media. But the sequel chose to go on an entirely different route: it's a sci-fi action comedy. It leans on how stupid and ridiculous this whole thing is, pretty much dropping the horror. Now, it's not rare for horror films to shift genres within sequels (Alien to Aliens is a pretty good example). But it's still not as common. While one can praise that they didn't rehash the same plot as the original, the film also lost horror fans who weren't on board with the film's new tone. After all, the tagline is "that bitch vs. that bitch". The original film was also a hit with critics (93% on RT), while the sequel earned polarizing reactions (58% on RT).

It also truly feels like Blumhouse's brand has taken a dive in the past year. 2024 was quite rough; a few successes, but not a single film reached $100 million at the box office. But 2025 was even worse: Wolf Man and The Woman in the Yard flopped at the box office, which was simply unbelievable considering their very low budgets. And Drop only broke even at best. And now the sequel to one of its biggest hits was pretty much rejected. Once the kings of profitable horror, it looks like audiences are losing interest when the Blumhouse card shows up.

According to Universal, 53% of the audience was female, and 68% was 25 and over. They gave it an okay "B+" on CinemaScore, which is actually higher than the original M3GAN ("B"). An explanation for that may be that those uninterested in the tone shift skipped the film; if you bought a ticket for the sequel, you knew exactly what you were getting. It's very unlikely M3GAN 2.0 holds well, and it's pretty much guaranteed to finish below the original's opening weekend. Right now, a $25 million total is likely. Blumhouse really needs to consider what's going on.

In fifth place, 28 Years Later earned $9.7 million this weekend. That's a horrible 67% drop from last week, although it's not entirely surprising, considering the film's mixed word of mouth. Through 10 days, the film has amassed $50.4 million, already passing all the previous films in the franchise, but it looks like it won't make it much further than $60 million domestically. Its legs are proving to be very, very short.

Lilo & Stitch eased just 29% and grossed $6.8 million. The film's domestic total stands at $400 million, and it's set to finish with around $415-$420 million domestically.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning eased 36% and added $4.1 million this weekend. The film has amassed $186 million so far.

Materialists had quite a rough drop on its third weekend. It dropped 53%, earning $2.9 million. The film has crossed $30 million domestically, and it has a few more millions left.

It doesn't look like Ballerina will ever have a sub 50% drop. The film once again fell 51%, earning just $2.1 million. It has earned a meager $55 million, and getting to $60 million will be a struggle.

Rounding out the Top 10 is another disappointment, Karate Kid: Legends. The film once again fell a rough 59% and made just $960,702 this weekend. It has earned $51.5 million, and it doesn't have much gas left in the tank.

Final Destination: Bloodlines dropped 49% and added $956,014. That takes its domestic total to $136.7 million.

The Phoenician Scheme appears like it's disappearing quickly. It dropped 52% for a $692,260 weekend. With $17.8 million, it's struggling to hit the $20 million milestone.

Neon's The Life of Chuck is also nearing the end of its run. It collapsed a poor 62% and made just $379,676 this weekend. With a mediocre $5.6 million so far, it's capping out with a little over $6 million.

OVERSEAS

F1 may have over-performed domestically, but the real money for this film is outside America.

F1 debuted with a great $146 million worldwide, which is Brad Pitt's biggest ever debut. The best debuts were in the UK ($9.2M), China ($9M), Mexico ($6.7M), France ($5.4M) Australia ($5M), South Korea ($3.7M), Germany ($3.4M), India ($2.8M), Japan ($2.8M), UAE ($2.7M), Italy ($2.4M), and Spain ($2.3M). It remains to be seen how the upcoming blockbusters could impact its performance, but for now, the film definitely should hit $400 million worldwide. Apple should definitely be pleased with the results, and you can bet they will now release Joseph Kosinski's UFO thriller in theaters now. It feels pretty much guaranteed.

How to Train Your Dragon added $32.7 million overseas, for a $456 million worldwide total. The best markets are China ($31.1M), Mexico ($30M), the UK ($21.8M), Brazil ($15M) and South Korea ($11.4M). Like the domestic market, the drops aren't as strong as expected. It should still hit $600 million worldwide, but it's still not guaranteed.

28 Years Later added $13.7 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $103.1 million. That's a rough drop, but at least it's better than its domestic freefall. It's already the highest grossing film in the franchise, although it definitely feels like it's dropping faster than expected. It's very unlikely it can get to $150 million worldwide, raising so many questions over whatever Sony plans to do with The Bone Temple and the third film in this trilogy.

Elio continues showing no signs of life, as it earned just $11.2 million overseas, for an anemic $72 million worldwide total. The best markets are South Korea ($3M), France ($2.9M), UK ($2.9M), China ($2.7M) and Mexico ($2.3M), all of which are very weak numbers. There's not many major markets left, so unless Japan pulls a miracle run in August, this film could miss $150 million worldwide. Which means it will go down as one of the biggest flops of the year. Damn.

But M3GAN 2.0 had it even worse outside America. The film crashed with a poor $6.8 million overseas, for a very weak $17 million worldwide debut. It had a very soft debut in Mexico ($1.2M), followed by a non-presence in practically every other market. Even though the film cost $25 million, the rule of thumb doesn't work with low-budget films in Blumhouse, given those have higher expenses in marketing. Given that the film will struggle in hitting $50 million worldwide, M3GAN 2.0 is officially a flop.

FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK

None.

THIS WEEKEND

It's dino time.

Yep, Jurassic World Rebirth is making its way to theaters (on Wednesday, not Friday). With a new cast (Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, and Ed Skrein), it hopes to continue the winning streak that this franchise achieved. After all, despite their reputation, all the Jurassic World films hit $1 billion. But it's also true that there's a downward trajectory ($1.6B > $1.3B > $1.0B), and it's very likely this film will continue the drops. Reviews are quite mediocre so far, and there's some big competition on theaters. But then again, never underestimate the power of dinosaurs.

If you're interested in following the box office, come join us in r/BoxOffice.