Marvel’s THUNDERBOLTS* is Set to Exceed Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions — GeekTyrant

Marvel’s Thunderbolts* hits theatres this week, and a lot is riding on it. Not only is the studio hoping to see the film begin an upward trajectory from the last few years’ slump, but they’re also hoping the film’s box office numbers are better than the last several films they’ve put out. If the early reviews and reported calculations are correct, the movie may just hit both those marks.

In a report from THR, the outlet says tracking suggests the film will open in the $70 million to $73 million range domestically, and $160 million to $175 million globally, against a $180 million production budget before marketing.

Prior to the pandemic, that would have been considered not so great for an MCU title kicking off summer. But times have changed, with tracking becoming more unreliable. Also, the Disney-owned Marvel is stressing these aren’t well-known characters.

If word-of-mouth is strong, all bets are off. The unexpected spring bloom currently underway at the box office — led by Ryan Coogler’s sleeper sensation Sinners — proves that people want the communal experience of watching a film together.

Not long ago, year-to-date box office revenue was lagging badly behind the same corridor in 2024. Then two weekends ago, revenue was up by 2 percent. Now it’s up more than 11 percent.

Yesterday, the pic’s critics score on Rotten Tomatoes was a promising 89 percent fresh with only 98 reviews posted. When the embargo broke earlier in the day, it was initially 92 percent, and the score is certain to continue to fluctuate.

As a way of comparison, Captain America: Brave New World had a rotten score of 48 percent yet opened to $88.8 million earlier this year. And last July, Deadpool & Wolverine was a record-setting win for Marvel, opening to $211 million.

Thunderbolts*‘ ensemble cast features Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova), Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes), Wyatt Russell (John Walker), David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov/Red Guardian), Lewis Pullman (Bob), Hannah John-Kamen (Ghost), Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (CIA director Valentine Allegra de Fontaine).