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October 17-19 Box Office Recap – ‘Black Phone 2’ debuts at #1 with a great $27.3M DOM and $42.8M WW. ‘Tron: Ares’ collapses a steep 67%, earning just $103M WW after two weeks. ‘Good Fortune’ and ‘After the Hunt’ flop with $6.1M and $1.5M, respectively.

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October 17-19 Box Office Recap – ‘Black Phone 2’ debuts at #1 with a great .3M DOM and .8M WW. ‘Tron: Ares’ collapses a steep 67%, earning just 3M WW after two weeks. ‘Good Fortune’ and ‘After the Hunt’ flop with .1M and .5M, respectively.

https://preview.redd.it/nf8pix4l0cwf1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbbc0038d1a7fb761edb8eb4e9e0c089377a8f7c

After a very poor year, Blumhouse bounced back with Black Phone 2, which managed to open above the original title. And in the process, Tron: Ares had a very ugly second weekend drop. The other wide release, Lionsgate's Good Fortune, had very poor luck with an underwhelming debut, while the wide expansion of Amazon MGM's After the Hunt flopped.

The Top 10 earned a combined $60.3 million this weekend. That's slightly down from last year, when Smile 2 topped the box office.

Debuting at #1, Universal/Blumhouse's Black Phone 2 earned a damn great $27.3 million in 3,411 theaters. That's above the original's $23.6 million, and marks Blumhouse's highest debut since Five Nights at Freddy's ($80 million). Yes, it's been some rough two years for the company. It's also above last year's Smile 2 ($23 million), which opened on this exact same date.

The fact that it could open higher than the original is a very encouraging sign, considering sequels often tend to drop off from the original. While there were concerns over whether the film really warranted a sequel, props to director Scott Derrickson for pulling off a very interesting angle: the Grabber is back, and now he went the Freddy Krueger route of chasing his victims in his dreams. While that felt derivative from that franchise, it was solid enough to justify its existence. And solid reviews (72% on RT) definitely helped.

According to Universal, 53% of the audience was male, and 53% was 25 and over. The film was very popular with Hispanic audiences, representing 39% of the weekend's gross. They gave it a "B" on CinemaScore; while this is below the original's "B+", it's still a solid score for a horror film. With very light horror competition, this is gonna be the main attraction for horror fans this month. It's unlikely it can match the original's gross ($90 million), as that film had stronger-than-usual legs for horror thanks to very strong word of mouth. But at the very least, Black Phone 2 should have enough gas to hit $70 million domestically.

In second place, Disney's Tron: Ares earned $11.1 million. That's a very steep 67% drop, worse than Legacy's 56.5% drop. With such a soft debut, the film just failed to attract interest outside the most diehard fans of the franchise. Through 10 days, the film has earned a meager $54.5 million, and it will finish with just around $75 million domestically at this rate.

In third place, Lionsgate's Good Fortune opened with an underwhelming $6.1 million in 2,990 theaters. That's a very mediocre debut, especially considering that it had Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen, and Aziz Ansari (its writer and director) attached.

Given its $30 million budget, this is a disappointing result. But it also shows the challenges of opening an original comedy in theaters; One of Them Days remains the only original comedy to hit $50 million domestically. It's a very complicated market, and unfortunately, comedies are often the most affected. Even with its intriguing combination (angels on Earth and body-swapping), perhaps the audience wasn't interested in seeing Keanu Reeves in a comedy role. Even with good reviews (78% on RT), it just wasn't enough.

According to Lionsgate, 53% of the audience was male. It had almost no appeal for young audiences; a colossal 81% of the audience was 25 and over. They gave it an okay "B+" on CinemaScore, and it could hold well over the next few weeks. But right now, it'd be a surprise if it made it to $25 million domestically.

WB's One Battle After Another eased 43%, adding $3.8 million this week. The film's domestic total stands at $61.7 million so far.

In fifth place, Paramount's Roofman added $3.7 million this weekend. That's a rough 54% drop, indicating that word of mouth might not be quite strong with this title. Through 10 days, the film has earned $15.5 million, and it will now finish with less than $25 million domestically.

In sixth place, Angel Studios' Truth & Treason debuted with a weak $2.6 million in 2,106 theaters. Even with an "A" on CinemaScore, it's unlikely it will last long in theaters.

Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie dropped 49% for a $1.7 million weekend. The film has earned $30 million, and it should finish with around $35 million domestically.

The Conjuring: Last Rites dropped 49%, grossing $1.6 million. That takes its domestic total to $175.4 million.

In ninth place, Amazon MGM's release of Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt flopped with just $1.5 million in 1,238 theaters. This is Julia Roberts' worst ever debut in wide release, and it wasn't even in Guadagnino's top 3 wide debuts.

This result is not surprising. The film was positioned as a big Oscar player, but all that buzz died when it premiered in Venice. Adult dramas require critical acclaim to stand a chance, and After the Hunt was a rare Guadagnino misfire: it's sitting at a very bad 39% on RT. As such, Amazon MGM slowed down its marketing tactic. Couple all that, along with a very delicate subject matter (sexual assault), and the audience was just very limited. And with an awful "C–" on CinemaScore, this is going to fall quickly over the next weeks.

Rounding out the Top 10 was Sony's Soul on Fire. Despite strong word of mouth, it dropped 53% for a $1.3 million weekend. The film's domestic total stands at $5.5 million.

Neon released the Palme d'Or winner, Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident, in 3 theaters. It earned $68,294, which is a fine $22,765 per-theater average (although that's just the 18th best of the year). As a point of reference, last year's Palme d'Or winner Anora averaged $91,750 in its first weekend. It will continue expanding over the next few weeks.

Sony Pictures Classics also released Richard Linklater's Blue Moon in 5 theaters. It debuted with $66,000, which is an unremarkable $13,200 per-theater average. It will expand next week to 500 theaters.

OVERSEAS

Black Phone 2 debuted with $15.5 million overseas, for a $42.8 million worldwide debut. Its biggest market was Mexico (the biggest OS market for the original), where it opened with a strong $4.3 million. The other markets were the UK ($1.5M), Brazil ($1.2M), Australia ($908K) and France ($569K). It still has some big markets left to open, so this should have a very strong run all the way through Halloween.

Further embarrassing itself was Tron: Ares. Despite keeping all IMAX and PLF screens, the film dropped by 54% for $14.1 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to a very poor $103.1 million after just 2 weeks. It opened in China, where it flopped with just $2.8 million. Its biggest markets are Mexico ($4.9M), the UK ($4.3M), France ($3.3M), China ($2.8M) and Germany ($2.7M). With very few markets left, it's clear that the film will struggle to hit $170 million. Which means its worldwide total will be below Legacy's domestic total ($172 million). Deadline is already reporting that due to its high costs, the film will lose over $130 million. Maybe this is truly the end of the franchise?

One Battle After Another added $11.8 million, allowing it to cross the $100 million milestone overseas, and $162.3 million worldwide. The best markets are the UK ($13M), France ($10.1M), Germany ($7.7M), Italy ($5.2M) and Australia ($4.6M).

Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie added $6.8 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $58.7 million. It had very good debuts in the UK ($2.3M) and Spain ($1M). Only Japan is left, but that's until March.

FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK

Movie Release Date Studio Domestic Opening Domestic Total Worldwide Total Budget
The Roses Aug/29 Searchlight $6,265,264 $15,298,844 $51,137,748 $30M
  • Searchlight's The Roses has closed with a weak $15 million domestically and $51 million worldwide, failing to recoup its budget. For reference, the original War of the Roses made $86 million domestically and $160 million worldwide back in 1989. Turns out people just weren't interested in going back to the Roses.

THIS WEEKEND

We've got a lot of wide releases, and it's up in the air if any will take the #1 spot away from Black Phone 2.

The first is 20th Century Studios' Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, which stars Jeremy Allen White as the Boss during the making of his album Nebraska. Music biopics have been a gold mine at the box office (well, mostly), so it was inevitable that Bruce Springsteen would get his own biopic. Even if the reviews (66% on RT) do not exactly paint it as a great film itself.

The other is Paramount's Regretting You, based on the novel by Colleen Hoover. The novel isn't as popular as It Ends with Us, but it doesn't really need that to become a success. Without many romance options in the market, this could be a main attraction for women and couples.

Sony is also launching Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc in many big markets. The film has already earned $68 million overseas, most of which came from Japan. We're coming off the massive success of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, but don't expect this to get anywhere close to those numbers.

Neon is also releasing Chris Stuckmann's directorial debut Shelby Oaks in wide release. Announced back in 2021, the film became the most-funded horror film project on Kickstarter, allowing it to finally begin production. It has already premiered in festivals and getting some good reviews (83% on RT), and even got Mike Flanagan attached as executive producer. Even Neon is confident enough in the film, as they agreed to double the budget to increase the violence and gore and refine the film. So get ready to get Stuckmannized.

And finally, Focus Features is releasing Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia in limited release, ahead of a wide expansion the following week. It stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone, and follows two young men who kidnap a powerful CEO, suspecting that she is secretly an alien who wants to destroy Earth. It has premiered in so many festivals (just go look at the Wikipedia page, it's insane) and reviews are pretty great so far (91% on RT). With some Oscar buzz on the horizon, this should easily score one of the year's biggest per-theater averages.


If you're interested in following the box office, come join us in r/BoxOffice.

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