Oscars 2025 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner

There is no shortage of competitors for the Best Actor category hoping to be nominated for the Oscars 2025 and try to win. The Academy Award for the best lead male actor is one of the biggest awards each year, which is no different in 2025. Following in the footsteps of Cillian Murphy’s breakthrough win for Oppenheimer in 2024, there is an entirely new crop of performers who want to win this year. They’ll be among the nominees in all Oscars 2025 categories, as voters decide which five actors deserve the nominations before narrowing it down to one winner.

As the ones in front of the camera, actor awards can often get more attention than the 2025 Oscars Best Director nominations. There is usually plenty of overlap between the actors who are nominated for Best Actor and the selection of films contending for Best Picture. Since those ten movies are deemed the best of the best, it’s understandable for the best performances of the year to be included in them. Whether the 2025 Oscars Best Picture nominated movies completely cover the acting category or not, Screen Rant‘s predictions for Best Actor are below.

Others Contending For The Oscars 2025 Best Actor

The list of five actors we’re predicting to get Oscar nominations for Best Actor when the nominees are announced on January 19, 2025 is subject to change, as several other actors are still in contention. The hopes of performances like John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), and Hugh Grant (Heretic) getting nominations are lower now after how awards season has played out.

A strong contender to potentially snag the fifth nomination spot is Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain). 13 years after being nominated in Best Actor for The Social Network, Eisenberg is back in contention with his dramedy co-starring Kieran Culkin. He has several nominations among critics groups, as well as the Astra Film Awards and Golden Globes. However, with Eisenberg likely to get nominated for his A Real Pain screenplay, that could be how voters elect to recognize his work behind the camera instead of in front of it.

If Jesse Eisenberg doesn’t sneak into the race, the final spot is likely to come down to Daniel Craig or one of two Sebastian Stan performances. Daniel Craig has been the presumed fifth nominee for most of awards season, as Queer would mark his first Oscar nomination. He has been nominated by the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, SAG, and National Board of Review – with the latter marking his lone win. There’s a very real possibility that he gets the last nomination spot in Best Actor, but my prediction has shifted to Sebastian Stan taking it instead.

5

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice/A Different Man

He’s Never Been Nominated For An Oscar

Sebastian Stan has continued to find favor throughout awards season thanks to his performances in The Apprentice and A Different Man. While I’m not sure which performance in particular voters will like more, his work in both films are finding more appreciation at a moment when Daniel Craig’s performance in Queer is fading. Stan has already proven he’s a capable dramatic actor with Pam & Tommy on TV who can deliver performances worthy of awards recognition. Now, The Apprentice or A Different Man can do that for him on the movie side.

The biggest moment for Sebastian Stan this awards season came with the Golden Globes, where he won Best Actor – Musical or Comedy for A Different Man. He was nominated for this performance and The Apprentice (in Best Actor – Drama). Even though the voting bodies are not the same, it gave Stan a chance to bring more attention to his work and win over more voters with his speech. This opportunity should pay dividends for the star as he looks to further breakout from being known as The Winter Soldier in the MCU.

Even if Stan gets nominated, there is not a great chance that he wins. The other predicted nominees ahead of him have had tight grips on the category throughout the season. But since this would be Sebastian Stan’s first Oscar nomination, the recognition alone would be a huge moment for his career. Missing out on a SAG nomination for either performance could be a critical mark against Stan’s case, but he’s still surging right as Oscar voting begins.

4

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Domingo Got His First Oscar Nomination Last Year

Colman Domingo is back in awards contention yet again, and he’s still chasing the Best Actor win. He had a breakthrough role as far as the Oscars are concerned in 2023 with Rustin. Domingo’s powerful performance in the biopic drew strong support from voters as he received his first Best Actor Oscar nomination. While he ultimately did not win the category, it suggested that it would only take another great performance for him to be back in the race.

Thanks to Sing Sing‘s debut at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2023, it was known that Domingo had already done so before he officially lost at the 2024 Oscars. A24 held off on releasing Sing Sing until 2024 so it would be a contender for the Oscars 2025, likely partially due to the support Domingo already had for a nomination for Rustin. Now, he’s well positioned to earn Oscar nominations for Best Actor in back-to-back years.

Colman Domingo has already earned some recognition for his Sing Sing performance thanks to early awards season success. He notably won the Gotham Awards’ Best Actor, giving him his first major win of the season. He’s since secured nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards. With a Golden Globes loss already secured, Domingo will need to find wins elsewhere to build his momentum further.

3

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

He’s A Two-Time Oscar Nominee

The 2025 Oscars Best Actor category could finally be the time for Ralph Fiennes to become an Oscar winner. Fiennes’ performance is one of the highlights of the film for just about everyone who sees it. His work should resonate with Academy voters and put him squarely in the mix for a Best Actor Oscar nomination. After all, he was even our predicted winner in the category previously. Although that is no longer the case, to no fault of his own, it would be a mistake to completely discount his chances.

The narrative behind Ralph Fiennes getting nominated and possibly winning the Best Actor Oscar is strong. He’s been nominated twice before by the Academy. His first Oscar nomination came in 1994 for Schindler’s List in Best Supporting Actor. He followed that up with a Best Actor nomination three years later for The English Patient. Despite the overall excellence of his career, he’s gone nearly thirty years since his last Oscar nomination and a win has still eluded him. The 2025 Oscars can change that.

Conclave is an expected Oscars contender in various categories, which helps Ralph Fiennes’ case, but the movie either needs to gain more momentum or shift its focus to just supporting him for a win to happen. He’s been a favorite among early critic circles doing end-of-the-year lists, and he’s found nominations from the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards. However, he’s only won one award for Conclave from the Dallas–Fort Worth Film Critics Association. He needs wins elsewhere if he actually wants his first Oscar win.

2

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Chalamet Already Has One Best Actor Nomination

Timothée Chalamet looks poised to earn his second Best Actor Oscar nomination thanks to A Complete Unknown. He plays iconic musician Bob Dylan in the movie, directed by James Mangold. All signs point to this being a bit of a transformational performance by the young Hollywood star, as he puts his spin on Dylan’s talking and singing voice. The Academy has a soft spot for biopics, especially when they involve a celebrity as famous as Bob Dylan, which is another point in Chalamet’s favor.

A Complete Unknown would be Chalamet’s first Oscar nomination since 2018, when he entered the race thanks to Call Me By Your Name. He’s only become a bigger star in the years since, with him balancing roles with more obvious Oscar potential like A Complete Unknown with his first franchise, Dune. Although his performance as Paul Atreides is great in Dune: Part Two, it’s unlikely he’d be recognized for it by the Academy. That could make his Bob Dylan movie a chance for the Oscars to effectively acknowledge the overall work he did in 2024 between the two films.

Now with A Complete Unknown in theaters and viewers agreeing that Chalamet delivers a great performance, the awards recognition has started to come his way. He’s already got Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards nominations under his belt, along with dozens of critics group nominations and a few wins. Chalamet is a serious contender to win the Best Actor Oscar, as was predicted earlier. If he does, he’ll break Adrien Brody’s record to be the youngest Best Actor Oscar winner in history – but Brody is positioned as his biggest competition.

1

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

He’s Already A Best Actor Oscar Winner

Adrien Brody is sure to be back in the Best Actor race for the 2025 Oscars. His role in The Brutalist has put him strongly in contention to win the Academy Award once again. Adrien Brody won the Best Actor Oscar in 2003 for The Pianist, and he made history by becoming the youngest actor to win an Oscar. That would have seemingly positioned him as a frequent contender for more nominations and wins, but that has not happened. The Brutalist would be Brody’s first Oscar nomination since winning the award over two decades earlier.

The Brutalist is predicted to be a strong Oscar contender in many categories, and it’s becoming a stronger predicted winner in many. That could give extra favor to Adrien Brody if The Brutalist becomes a film that sweeps through the Oscars. He could follow a similar route to victory as Cillian Murphy did last year with Oppenheimer, as being the star of the potential Best Picture winner helps a lot.

Adrien Brody is our predicted Best Actor Oscar winner thanks to how he’s picked up steam in recent weeks. His Golden Globes win for Best Actor – Drama makes him the frontrunner, as the Oscars and Globes have matched winners in this category quite frequently in recent years. Next up for Brody is seeing if he can win at the Critics’ Choice Awards and SAG Awards. He’s certain to get an Oscar nomination at this point, but if A24 plays the rest of the season right and he avoids losing ground, Best Actor is his to lose.