Predictions & Odds For Every Category

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Movie buffs are trying to work out the list of Oscars 2026 nominations before they are announced in January. Both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations have been revealed, which has narrowed the field considerably on which films, directors, actors, actresses, and more will be up for the Academy Award win. Fortunately, experts and critics have weighed in on their predictions for the upcoming Oscar nominations, and we’ve compiled the odds in one place.

List of all Oscars 2026 nomination odds

The following are the prediction odds for the Oscars 2026 nominations in every category, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Actor. This comes by way of a combined poll on Gold Derby (as of December 11, 2025) between experts, editors, and users. For the sake of brevity, we will include all answers that received at least 10% of the vote.

(Note: We plan on updating this closer to the awards show, particular the Best Original Song category that lacks data at time of writing.)

Best Picture

Sinners – 96.69%
One Battle After Another – 96.57%
Hamnet – 96.01%
Marty Supreme – 94.43%
Sentimental Value – 94.31%
Frankenstein – 89.83%
It Was Just an Accident – 89.27%
Bugonia – 52.80%
Wicked: For Good – 52.40%
Train Dreams – 50.34%
The Secret Agent – 44.37%
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 42.15%
No Other Choice – 22.19%
Jay Kelly – 18.27%

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – 96.48%
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) – 94.00%
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – 87.21%
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) – 75.12%
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) – 74.03%
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – 28.75%
Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) – 15.40%

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) – 96.34%
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – 93.28%
Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) – 77.49%
Emma Stone (Bugonia) – 64.84%
Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) – 55.19%
Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) – 44.40%
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) – 40.05%

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaptrio (One Battle After Another) – 95.76%
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) – 94.85%
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) – 89.08%
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – 81.09%
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) – 68.23%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) – 27.32%
Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) – 10.59%

Best Supporting Actress

Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) – 90.59%
Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) – 83.53%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) – 77.99%
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) – 76.81%
Amy Madigan (Weapons) – 73.58%
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) – 26.42%
Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) – 16.71%
Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) – 10.50%

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) – 95.05%
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) – 94.88%
Paul Mescal (Hamnet) – 92.71%
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) – 86.06%
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) – 66.74%
Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – 31.22%
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) – 10.06%

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – 96.03%
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) – 95.98%
Will Tracy and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) – 79.11%
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi and Jahyee Lee (No Other Choice) – 66.91%
Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man) – 51.11%
Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein) – 44.92%
Cling Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams) – 42.56%

Best Original Screenplay

Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – 96.74%
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (Sentimental Value) – 95.54%
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – 93.18%
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) – 91.36%
Noah Baumback, Emily Mortimer (Jay Kelly) – 40.33%
Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent) – 39.41%
Zach Cregger (Weapons) – 13.78%

Best Casting (New Category!)

Francine Maisler (Sinners) – 96.12%
Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another) – 95.93%
Nina Gold (Hamnet) – 85.97%
Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) – 75.66%
Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) – 53.48%
Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) – 38.91%
Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story) – 21.59%

Best Cinematography

Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) – 94.84%
Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) – 94.34%
Łukasz Żal (Hamnet) – 90.03%
Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein) – 85.62%
Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams) – 62.28%
Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme) – 29.06%

Best Costume Design

Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) – 96.68%
Paul Tazewell (Wicked: For Good) – 95.41%
Malgosia Turzanska (Hamnet) – 92.24%
Ruth E. Carter (Sinners) – 91.19%
Malgorzata Karpiuk (The Testament of Ann Lee) – 60.11%
Miyako Mellizzi (Marty Supreme) – 20.63%
Colleen Atwood and Christine Cantella (Kiss of the Spider Woman) – 11.77%

Best Film Editing

Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) – 95.92%
Michael P. Shawver (Sinners) – 93.94%
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – 89.54%
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) – 84.83%
Stephen Mirrione (F1) – 67.02%
Olivier Bugge Coutté (Sentimental Value) – 21.66%

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein – 96.64%
Wicked: For Good – 94.01%
Sinners – 90.14%
The Smashing Machine – 78.66%
Bugonia – 48.68%
Weapons – 48.46%
28 Years Later – 17.14%

Best Production Design

Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau (Frankenstein) – 96.25%
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales (Wicked: For Good) – 93.13%
Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne (Sinners) – 92.96%
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton (Hamnet) – 89.78%
Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Avatar: Fire and Ash) – 62.20%
Jack Fisk (Marty Supreme) – 24.18%
Florencia Martin (One Battle After Another) – 10.50%

Best Original Song

(Note: No data on this category, unfortunately. But here are some possibilities.)

“Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel Blumberg (The Testament of Ann Lee)
“Dream As One” (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren (Diane Warren: Relentless)
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick (KPop Demon Hunters)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq (Sinners)
“Last Time (I Seen The Sun)” by Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith (Sinners)
“No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good)
“The Girl in the Bubble” (Wicked: For Good)
“Train Dreams” (Train Dreams)