Harry Potter & Global Box Office: Deadline International Insider

Good afternoon Insiders, Max Goldbart here with your very final international newsletter of what has been an at times tumultuous but never dull 2024. We hope you have a mighty fine Christmas and a Happy New Year and all that’s left is to thank you, dear reader, for coming back every week. It is hugely appreciated. Do read on.

Casting A Spell

The sorting hat: We end the year in Potter Land, exploring a show that could well be the highest profile project to be entering production in 2025. Intrigue is growing, mainly around cast. Our deep dive revealed that the search for the next Harry, Hermione and Ron has been whittled down a fair bit from a whopping 32,000, with Lucy Bevan and the casting execs leading the heavily guarded process thought to have started chemistry reads. I chatted with agents and located the original movies’ casting director to dive deep into what such a process will involve and how kids are being protected in a world fraught with danger in the social media age. We understand adult casting along with the other kids roles will only start being revealed once the main three are in place, with the other kids likely to be drawn from those that don’t quite make the cut but nonetheless impress Bevan and her team. No doubt some of 2025’s biggest casting stories will center on this show. A reminder from Nellie Andreeva’s analysis the other week that those rumored to be in the mix include Mark Rylance for Dumbledore, Sharon Horgan for McGonagall and Ted Lasso star Brett Goldstein for gamekeeper Hagrid of all people.

Betraying DEI: Agents have welcomed the “inclusive” approach taken by the casting team, which they say feels anything like box ticking. And this comes at a time of heightened tension over diversity due to the hardening of JK Rowling’s rhetoric around transgender rights. Jake explored further and found that people have not taken kindly to Warner Bros. Discovery or the BBC (which airs Rowling adaptation Strike) over this. Examining Rowling’s X feed from down the years, Jake found that where once the author pledged to “respect every trans person’s right to live any way that feels authentic and comfortable to them,” she now declines to use preferred pronouns and describes some trans women as “crossdressers.” There are other examples. HBO has been unequivocal that Rowling will be involved with the series and Casey Bloys shrugged off criticism at a press showcase last month. If Rowling, whose agent says he is proud to represent her, continues to generate headlines for all the wrong reasons, could HBO’s position start to change?

Box Office Projections

Box Office Bonanza: Nancy’s end of year box office projection round-up brought with it good news for 2025. Gower Street Analytics predicts that 2025 will hit $33B, around 8% up on this year. The international market (excluding China) is set to mirror this growth, rising by around 7%. “2025 is set to be a strong year for the global box office, fueled by robust studio slates and independent productions,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower. Big 2025 tentpoles include expansions of multi-billion-dollar box office franchises Avatar, the MCU, Mission: Impossible, Jurassic World, John Wick and The Conjuring. Read more here.

Coveted prize: Other pics that could light up the box office are vying to win the coveted International Feature Oscar at next year’s ceremony. That list was narrowed from 85 to 15 this week and Nancy and Damon were on hand to bring us the latest. In the mix are titles such as as Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez from France, Walter Salles’ Brazilian drama I’m Still Here and Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which is Germany’s submission, along with Ireland’s Kneecap, a personal favorite. At the other end of the spectrum, Latvia and Thailand both made history with the former’s animated fantasy Flow and the latter’s How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, a tear-jerking comedy-drama that has been a box office sensation. Sara spoke with How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies star Billkin this morning.

Closing In On MIP London

Spilling tea at the Savoy: Deadline took a trip to the Savoy this week. Sadly, a stay in the lux hotel wasn’t on the agenda. Instead, we were there for a first-hand look at the venues for the inaugural MIP London. The event will also occupy the adjoining IET London and Deadline took the tour. What was occupying MIP London Director Lucy Smith was getting across the message that this will not cannibalize the super successful London TV Screenings, but rather bring new faces to the English capital come Feb. There has been pushback from some of the London TV Screenings crowd, but Smith told Deadline a significant proportion of people signed up to MIP London are not regular Screenings-goers. The mantra is more people, more business, more opportunity and market organizer RX France is expecting up to 2,000 people to attend. In fact, thoughts have already turned to subsequent editions. “We’re here not just for one year,” Smith said. “We see this as a long-term investment, and somewhere we want to be, and we want to stay.”

Canal+ Floats

Spinning off: Big day Monday for Canal+, which became a standalone company and floated on the London Stock Exchange. The Paddington studio was one of three businesses to be spun off from owner Vivendi, with CEO Maxime Saada telling CNBC the move was made to unlock the growth potential of each. Saada may therefore have watched Canal+’s share price plummet 20% within hours (at time of writing the fall is around 13%) with alarm, although we are told the dip was largely expected among investors. Many Vivendi shareholders who automatically assumed Canal+ stock have been forced to sell as they are restricted to owning non-French stock. One to keep an eye on, for sure. Canal+ is in the process of pushing through its biggest acquisition, that of African’s MultiChoice (owner of Showmax), and this could be one of the biggest M&A stories of 2025. With Paddington in Peru still lighting up the box office, it will be fascinating to keep tabs on the Canal+ story.

Martial Arts Kicking Ass

New wave: Our final Global Breakout of the year saw Sara Merican head to Hong Kong, where a martial arts film has been kicking ass at the global box office. Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In follows an illegal migrant who is also a skilled fighter, as he finds a way to survive in the triad-ridden Kowloon Walled City. Directed by veteran action director Soi Cheang, the film stars Louis Koo, Sammo Hung, Richie Jen, Raymond Lam, Terrance Lau, Kenny Wong, Philip Ng and Tony Wu. Having raked in more than $111M globally, we’re watching to see where this one ends up next. Sara writes that the pic’s broad appeal marks a critical inflection point for Hong Kong’s martial arts cinema – invoking reflection on its golden bygone age, yet also ushering hope that a new wave might be just around the corner. No martial arts film had registered among the highest-grossing films at the domestic box office in the last 15 years before Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In came along. Dive deeper here for words from the cast and crew.

The Essentials

🌶️ Hot One: Universal acquisitions exec Jasper Van Hecke is exiting the studio after 16 years. Andreas with the scoop n interview.

🌶️ Very Hot: Channel 4 is making a definitive doc series about Nelson Mandela.

🌶️ Hotter still: A prequel to smash Israeli series Shtisel is in the works.

🏕️ Festivals latest: Italy’s Mario Gianani spoke at Les Arcs. Mel was on the scene, while also bringing the latest on Karin Viard’s ski accident.

🏕️ More festivals: Tilda Swinton will be handed Berlin’s honorary Golden Bear this year.

🤝 Done deal: Lionsgate and Bell Media are developing an original scripted show for the Canadian market with Seth Rogen’s Point Grey.

🚁 Deadline On Tour: Our Grand Tour wrapped after four European screenings of Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths.

👩 Exiting: UK anchor Kay Burley, who is expected to depart Sky News breakfast after five years.

📉 Slowdown: In Australia and Canada, per reports from Jesse this week.

👍 Promoted: Two senior Amazon MGM Studios international execs, who will oversee brands out of London and LA.

👞 Stepping down: Moonbug co-founder John Robson is leaving the CoComelon maker.

✍️ Signed: Docu-film maker and activist Munroe Bergdorf with Curtis Brown.

🎤 The big interview: Aamir Khan detailed to Zac how young Indian filmmakers are shaking things up.

🕯️ RIP: Marisa Paredes, the Spanish actress who starred in several Pedro Almodóvar features.

📖 Read the screenplay: For The Seed of the Sacred Fig from Mohammad Rasoulof.

🎞️ Trailer: For Safe Harbour from Ozark co-creator Mark Williams, who spoke with Stewart.

This week’s International Insider was written by Max Goldbart and edited by Stewart Clarke, who also contributed.