THURSDAY AM: Paramount reported $15.5M for the Wednesday opening day of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which includes previews. The studio isn’t reporting a 3 and 5-day projection as those type of forecasts can be wonky and it ultimately boils down to Friday business.
Rivals, however, are betting at this point in time that Dead Reckoning isn’t as big as the $90M tracking purported it to be. More like $47M for the 3-day and $70.5M per industry estimates right now. The worry here is if this is Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny all over again with a very expensive film near $300M production cost, long-running time and older dude skewing franchise falling short of expectations. There’s a chance on a five-day basis, this could still be a franchise record start: Mission: Impossible II has the best five-day opening for the Cruise series at $78.8M.
With a running time of 2 hours and 43 minutes, it’s clear that Dead Reckoning is appointment viewing for moviegoers like Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. However, it’s a fast 2 hours and 43 minutes given the awesome action set pieces in the movie.
Last night on Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak, Dead Reckoning looked similar to Indy‘s Thursday night demos with 34% over 45, 74% over 25 and heavily male at 65%.
However, here’s the box office viagra that Ethan Hunt has over Indiana Jones, and hopefully this will bode well in spreading word of mouth, especially with the younger demos: Dead Reckoning has an A CinemaScore to Dial of Destiny‘s B+. That’s the second A for a Mission movie after 2018’s Fallout. The franchise counts three A- grades for Rogue Nation, Mission Impossible III and Ghost Protocol. Mission: Impossible did B+ while Mission: Impossible II got a B. It’s also one of the best reviewed Missions of all-time at 96% certified fresh to Fallout‘s 97% certified fresh. In addition, Mission‘s edge over Indy is that Cruise and the franchise are more of a draw at the overseas boxoffice than the Lucasfilm IP (which isn’t even known in certain big markets like China). Korea and Japan are expected to be big for Dead Reckoning. It’s overseas in the end that could possibly bail this very pricey Mission movie out. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opened to $130M WW, with a domestic 3-day of $60.3M. The Friday-Tuesday five day was $83.8M. Current global on the Lucasfilm franchise finale is north of $256M WW.
On social media, RelishMix spots, “Convo tone on Dead Reckoning runs positive as fans acknowledge Tom Cruise’s tireless tenacity as Hollywood’s modern daredevil, proclaiming he’s ‘hauling modern cinema on his back.’ Paired with filmmaker Christoper McQuarrie’s daring direction and newcomer Hayley Atwell, some already herald it as potentially ‘the best action movie of all time.’ This series is being elevated above competitors, notably Fast X and The Fast and Furious franchise, with fans assertively favoring its consistently epic entries — ‘This franchise is the movie embodiment of aged fine wine.’ Even with a chorus of praise, a handful of viewers yearn for fresh elements, countering the franchise’s predictable beats. Yet, the Mission: Impossible saga continues its powerful performance, captivating its loyal audience and igniting anticipation for this new chapter.”
UPDATED WEDNESDAY PM: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One‘s opening day is looking like $16 million, which includes the $7M in previews.
Yes, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission: Impossible – Fallout both posted first days in the $22M-$23M range, but those were Fridays. This is about the long play of the movie, and Tom Cruise fare is back-loaded. The reason why this pic is going for the five-day record is due to its length, at 2 hours and 43 minutes. It’s expected, especially with a current great Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94%, to get to $90M, a franchise record opening, by Sunday. Again, it’s still early. These numbers could go up.
Sound of Freedom is looking at second place with $3.9M and a running total of $53.4M. That daily gross is holding steady with Monday and Tuesday. Very impressive.
UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One came in at the high end of expectations with $7M in previews. Pic was booked at 3,300 locations and hikes its theater count up to 4,000-plus today including Imax and PLF.
I’m told that the fan PLF money from Monday shows isn’t included in that $7M figure. The previous chapter, Mission: Impossible – Fallout posted Thursday previews of $6M, a record for the franchise. Next to other summer comps, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny posted $7.2M in previews.
The Rotten Tomatoes audience score out of the gate after previews is 94%.
Tom Cruise and filmmaker Christopher McQuarrie have been touring the film; the duo making stops in Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, and Washington DC, greeting fans at cinemas.
Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie make a surprise appearance Tuesday at ‘Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’ screening at the AMC Sunset Place 24 in South Miami
Getty/Paramount
Yessica Borroto Perryman in ‘Sound of Freedom’
Everett Collection
In early estimates this morning, Angel Studio’ Jim Caviezel thriller Sound of Freedom won another weekday with $4M yesterday, beating Sony/Blumhouse/Stage 6 Films’ Insidious: The Red Door which had $3.48M. Both pics had even holds from Monday percent-wise. Sound of Freedom raises its running total to $49.7M in its eight-day run. Wow. It’s expected that the pic will post a -30% ease in weekend 2 with around $13M-$14M after a $19.6M reported 3-day last week. Red Door‘s five day run rises to $40M.
EXCLUSIVE: Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part One is looking at $6M-$7M in previews so far, which is bound to be higher than the Thursday previews of the last Mission Impossible – Fallout back in 2018 which did $6M. This is according to sources. The figures we’re seeing now could go higher or lower.
Dead Reckoning previews began at 2PM today, however, I hear there were PLF fan screenings on Monday and that handful of bucks is accounted for in the estimate.
Dead Reckoning is one of the longer films of the summer at 2 hours and 43 minutes with credits. Not as long as Oppenheimer‘s 3 hours (opening on July 21), but longer than Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2 hours and 34 minutes) and The Flash (2 hours and 24 minutes). However, the action is unlike anything any Mission Impossible or Fast and Furious movie has ever delivered before. Seriously, that Rome, Italy car chase will make you want to see the movie again. Paramount is going for a Mission:Impossible franchise five-day record here with a Wednesday start, which is smart given this sequel’s length and the limited amount of showtimes exhibitors can program. Disney did not execute a Wednesday start with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, another older dude skewing film, the studio opting for a Friday launch and seeing $60.3M over three days before July 4.
The best reviewed Mission: Impossible of all-time at 98% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Dead Reckoning is projected to have a $90M five-day stateside, $250M+ worldwide.
Last year, the decades long-awaited sequel Top Gun: Maverick posted the best box office results of Cruise’s career with $19.3M in U.S. previews, $126.7M domestic opening, and $256.4M WW start. The pic finaled at $718.7M domestic (No. 1 pic for 2023 domestic), $1.49 billion WW (No 2 global for 2023 after Avatar: The Way of Water).
Mission: Impossible – Fallout opened to $61.2M domestic, and legged out to $220.1M domestic, and $791.6M WW. Even if Mission comes up short this weekend, remember, Cruise’s movies are always backloaded at the B.O.
